Two vendors supply AVM confidence scores of 85 and 92 for the same property. No score definitions or calibration information is provided. What may the appraiser conclude from these numbers alone?
Correct Answer
B) The raw numbers do not establish which estimate is more reliable
Raw vendor scores cannot establish relative reliability without knowing their definitions, scales, and calibration. The higher number may reflect a different scoring system rather than greater accuracy. Understand the measures and evaluate appropriate independent performance evidence. Averaging unlike scores or inferring identical inputs is unsupported.
Why This Is the Correct Answer
Option B is correct because raw vendor scores cannot establish relative reliability without knowing their definitions, scales and calibration. The higher number may simply reflect a different scoring system. The Interagency Guidelines call for evaluating each vendor's scoring system and methodology.
Why the Other Options Are Wrong
Option A: The second model is more accurate for this property
Option A concludes the second model, scoring 92, is more accurate for this property. Without knowing how each vendor defines and calibrates its score, a higher number does not show greater accuracy.
Option C: Averaging the scores provides a validated confidence measure
Option C says averaging the scores of 85 and 92 provides a validated confidence measure. Averaging two scores on possibly different scales produces a meaningless figure, not a validated measure.
Option D: Both models used identical sales data
Option D concludes both models used identical sales data. Nothing in the two scores indicates what data each model used, so that inference is unsupported.
Different rulers, different numbers
Comparing confidence scores from two vendors is like comparing a reading in inches with one in centimeters without knowing the units.
How to use: Use this analogy when a question compares scores from different vendors.
Exam Tip
When information about definitions or calibration is missing, the best answer often recognizes that no firm conclusion can be drawn.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- -Assuming a higher score means a more accurate estimate across vendors
- -Averaging scores from different scoring systems
- -Inferring data sources from confidence scores
Concept Deep Dive
Analysis
This question tests whether raw confidence scores from different vendors can be compared. Without definitions, scales and calibration information, the numbers 85 and 92 may measure different things. The only supported conclusion is that the raw numbers do not establish which estimate is more reliable.
Background Knowledge
Each AVM vendor designs its own confidence measure, which may be based on different statistics and scales. Meaningful comparisons require understanding these definitions and reviewing independent performance evidence, such as testing against verified sales.
Real-World Application
A reviewer sees two AVM reports for the same home, one scoring 85 and the other 92. Before giving either more weight, the reviewer obtains each vendor's score documentation and checks independent performance data for that area.
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